Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025-2040: Key Levels & Long-Term Targets

#BTC

• Cycle Alignment: 2025 resistance tests mirror 2017 and 2021 patterns
• Institutional Onramps: ETF flows now outweigh retail on-chain activity
• Macro Tailwinds: DXY weakness and pro-crypto legislation enhance BTC's store-of-value narrative

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: July 2025 Outlook

BTC is currently trading at, above its 20-day moving average (106,106 USDT), signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, the MACD histogram remains negative (-1,249), suggesting lingering bearish pressure. The price sits NEAR the upper Bollinger Band (110,581 USDT), indicating potential resistance. Analyst Ava notes: 'While the MA crossover is encouraging, traders should watch for a MACD reversal to confirm sustained upside.'

Institutional Demand & Macro Trends Fuel Bitcoin Optimism

Fidelity's ETF inflows ($407M) and BlackRock's revenue outperformance highlight growing institutional adoption. Michael Saylor's bullish IBIT prediction and Trump's pro-crypto bill add to positive sentiment. However, Ava cautions: '$140K resistance is key – BTC must break this level to confirm a new macro uptrend.' On-chain data shows holder accumulation, supporting the 'market maturity' thesis.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin Open Interest Rebounds as Price Tests Key Resistance

Bitcoin's resurgence above $110,000 has reignited bullish sentiment, with traders cautiously rebuilding derivatives positions. Open interest has shifted from -9% to +5% over the past month, signaling renewed confidence without the excessive leverage seen during 2024's frenzy.

The cryptocurrency now faces a critical test at its $112,000 all-time high. Market observers note this technical threshold could determine whether Bitcoin enters a sustained price discovery phase or faces another consolidation period.

Analyst Axel Adler highlights the measured nature of current positioning. While futures activity has increased, the 5% OI growth pales against previous spikes of 79% and 59% during 2024's volatility peaks. This suggests a more disciplined market approach amid improving macro conditions.

Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF Leads $407M Institutional Surge as BTC Holds Above $100K

Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) dominated spot ETF inflows with a $183 million single-day haul, driving a sector-wide rebound after brief outflows. The fund now controls 1.02% of Bitcoin's total supply—20,760 BTC worth $20.76 billion at current prices—solidifying its position as the second-largest institutional holder behind BlackRock.

Bitcoin's resilience at $109,935 defies macroeconomic headwinds, with the broader ETF market recording $407.78 million in net inflows on July 2. Notably absent was BlackRock's typically dominant IBIT, which saw zero flows during Fidelity's breakout performance.

Saylor Predicts IBIT Will Surpass All BlackRock ETFs in Revenue

MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor has made a bold prediction regarding BlackRock's iShares bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). He believes the fund is poised to become the asset manager's most profitable ETF, surpassing even its flagship offerings. This forecast comes as IBIT already ranks as BlackRock's third-highest revenue generator among its ETF lineup, pulling in $191 million annually—a remarkable feat for a product launched just this year.

The bitcoin ETF's rapid ascent reflects growing institutional and retail demand for crypto exposure. With $76.31 billion in assets under management, IBIT dwarfs competitors like Fidelity's bitcoin ETF, which holds $22.05 billion. The fund's 0.25% management fee structure—significantly higher than traditional index ETFs—contributes to its outsized revenue potential despite its relative newcomer status.

BlackRock's revenue model for IBIT differs from conventional ETFs, deriving income from custody and management services rather than trading volume. This structure proves particularly lucrative as bitcoin's price appreciation boosts the fund's asset base. Meanwhile, the firm's established products like the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) generate less revenue despite their massive size due to razor-thin 0.03% fees.

Bitcoin’s Holding Behavior and Price Surge Reflect Market Maturity

Bitcoin's rally to $110,132.23 underscores a seismic shift in investor psychology. Long-term holders now dominate the landscape, with Glassnode's liveliness metric hitting historic lows even as prices test all-time highs. The market cap swells to $2.19 trillion while available supply dwindles—just 2.1 million BTC remain before the 21 million hard cap.

Technical formations reveal critical levels: $106,000 emerges as stubborn resistance, while the $95,000-$97,000 band forms a fortress of support. This price action mirrors institutional accumulation patterns rather than retail speculation.

The crypto's evolution echoes gold's historical trajectory—scarce, immutable, and increasingly treated as a strategic reserve asset. 'Digital gold' narratives gain credence as on-chain data shows coins moving less frequently than during previous bull cycles.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Outshines S&P 500 Fund in Revenue Generation

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has eclipsed its flagship iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF (IVV) in annual fee revenue, a striking development given the vast disparity in assets under management. With $52 billion in assets and a 0.25% expense ratio, IBIT is projected to generate $187.2 million in fees—narrowly surpassing the $187.1 million produced by IVV’s $624 billion portfolio, which carries a minimal 0.03% fee structure.

The revenue shift underscores the profitability of crypto ETF fee models amid accelerating institutional adoption. "IBIT overtaking IVV reflects both surging demand for Bitcoin and extreme fee compression in core equity products," noted Nate Geraci of NovusDius Wealth Management. The milestone signals Bitcoin’s maturation from speculative asset to strategic portfolio holding.

Bitcoin Needs $140K to Match Peak Profits, On-Chain Data Shows

Long-term Bitcoin holders may require a surge to $140,000 to replicate the profit levels seen earlier this cycle. CryptoQuant's analysis reveals that this price target aligns with historical peaks in realized gains for investors holding coins for at least six months.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicates current holder profits average 220%, significantly below the 300%-350% gains observed in March and December 2024. This disparity creates what analysts term a 'market magnet' effect, drawing price expectations upward.

Profit-taking has intensified as Bitcoin approaches all-time highs, with long-term holders contributing substantially to recent selling pressure. These investors face a $33,800 break-even point, making the $140,000 target crucial for matching previous cycle highs.

TD9 Setup on Bitcoin Chart Suggests Four-Year Timeline to $149,000

Bitcoin's quarterly chart has closed with a perfected TD9 sell setup, according to crypto analyst Tony "The Bull" Severino. This technical pattern, part of the TD Sequential indicator, historically signals prolonged consolidation before significant price breakthroughs. The current setup projects a TD Risk level of $149,490—a potential long-term target.

Historical precedents suggest patience may be required. In 2017, a similar TD9 pattern emerged during Bitcoin's rally to $20,000, with the $35,000 TD Risk target only being breached four years later. The 2014 cycle showed comparable behavior when a $2,400 projection took years to materialize.

Recent price action shows modest upward momentum, supported by favorable technical analyses. However, the TD9 indicator implies bulls might need to temper short-term expectations despite the ambitious price target.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Resistance Test in 2025 as Decade-Old Trendline Comes into Play

Bitcoin's price action is once again testing a pivotal resistance level that has capped every major bull run since 2017. The cryptocurrency now approaches the upper boundary of a multi-year ascending channel that previously marked cycle tops at $20,000 in 2017 and $69,000 in 2021.

This technical formation represents more than just a chart pattern—it's a psychological battleground where greed historically turns to fear. The current retest could determine whether Bitcoin breaks into uncharted territory or faces another significant correction. Market participants are closely watching how price reacts at this make-or-break level.

The channel's resilience over eight years gives it particular significance. Each prior encounter with this trendline triggered sharp reversals, making the current test a critical juncture for both short-term traders and long-term holders. The outcome may set the tone for Bitcoin's trajectory through 2025 and beyond.

Bitcoin’s Market Cycle Evolution: Institutional Demand Outpaces On-Chain Activity

Bitcoin's price surge to $109,919 contrasts sharply with stagnant on-chain activity, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. Institutional inflows—driven by ETF adoption and corporate treasury allocations—now dominate price action while active addresses linger at 2022 levels.

Corporate adoption has nearly doubled since 2023, with 51 companies currently holding BTC on balance sheets. This strategic accumulation suggests institutions are treating Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset rather than a speculative vehicle.

Miners show disciplined holding patterns, derivatives markets heat up, and long-term holders exhibit selective profit-taking—all hallmarks of a maturing asset class. The decoupling from retail-driven on-chain metrics implies Bitcoin may be transitioning to a new phase of price discovery.

Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Passes House Vote, Set to Impact Crypto Markets

The House approved President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill, a sweeping fiscal package with broad implications for the U.S. economy. While crypto-specific provisions were largely stripped, the legislation's macroeconomic effects may Ripple through digital asset markets.

Market analysts highlight Bitcoin's potential as an inflation hedge amid concerns over the bill's deficit expansion. Elon Musk has vocally criticized the legislation, warning of economic destabilization.

The failed crypto amendments leave regulatory clarity for Web3 in limbo, though international investors may benefit from indirect bullish effects. Tax reforms could marginally boost U.S. retail participation in digital assets.

Bitcoin Outperforms Traditional Assets as DXY Index Tumbles

Bitcoin has surged nearly 12% since mid-January, mirroring the inverse trajectory of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which dropped by a similar margin over the same period. The DXY's decline—erasing nearly five years of gains—highlights its heavy reliance on European currencies, with the euro accounting for over half its weight. Notably absent from the basket is the Chinese renminbi, yet the dollar has still slipped 2.5% against the yuan this year.

The divergence between Bitcoin and the DXY is stark. Adjusted for the index's volatility, BTC/USD has decoupled further from dollar weakness, reinforcing its role as a macroeconomic hedge. Over one-, three-, and five-year spans, Bitcoin has outpaced commodities like crude oil and gold, as well as equities including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Only Nvidia has rivaled its long-term returns—a detail omitted from recent comparative charts.

This rally underscores Bitcoin's resilience amid currency fluctuations, with traders increasingly viewing it as a store of value distinct from traditional forex markets. The cryptocurrency's momentum persists even as analysts debate the sustainability of the DXY's slump.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

Ava's projection framework considers: 1) 4-year cycle theory (TD9 suggests $149K by 2029), 2) Stock-to-flow models, and 3) ETF-driven demand shocks. 'Post-2030 targets assume BTC captures 10-20% of global gold's market cap,' she notes. Key risks include regulatory shifts and quantum computing breakthroughs.